Since 2022, Texans have become more likely to identify as Republican and less likely to identify as Democrats.
As the Texas Senate race enters the third quarter of the election year, Democratic nominee Rep. James Talarico’s campaign announced it had more than tripled Republican nominee Attorney General Ken Paxton’s fundraising during the second quarter. Talarico’s $30 million pull boosted Democratic hopes that he could become the first Democrat to flip a Senate seat in the state since 1988.
Political Affiliation in Texas Over Time
Looking at PRRI data on partisan affiliation from 2022 to 2025, the numbers show an uphill battle for a blue surge in Texas in the 2026 midterm elections. Since 2022, Texans have become more likely to identify as Republicans (31% in 2025, up from 27%) and less likely to identify as Democrats (25%, down from 33%). The percentage of independents in the state has stayed consistent over the past three years.
