Trump favorability is on the decline among independents since 2024 in North Carolina, which could be critical in determining the outcome of the state’s Senate race.
North Carolina is the subject of an all-important Senate race that could determine control of the U.S. Senate. Democrats have failed to win any statewide federal elections in North Carolina since 2008, but recent polling suggests that the 2026 midterm cycle may be their best opportunity to buck this trend. Much of former Governor Roy Cooper’s lead over Republican candidate Michael Whatley, is credited to Cooper’s name recognition, the national environment overall, and President Donald Trump’s low favorability among Americans. Speaking to Newsweek, political scientist Christopher Cooper believes that only “if the national tides turn a little bit away from the Democratic Party and if he can solve the name recognition problem” can Michael Whatley win.
North Carolina Residents’ Views of President Trump Over Time
From 2022-2025, Trump favorability increased in North Carolina (from 33 to 42%) and in the country overall (from 32% to 39%). PRRI’s most recent data from May 2026 show a slight decline (39%) of North Carolina residents holding favorable views of President Trump,
From the 2024 presidential election through the end of 2025, Trump favorability in North Carolina rose from 35% to 42%, a trend largely driven by Republicans (from 76% to 86%). Over the same period, favorability among North Carolina Democrats remained in the single digits, while ratings among independents declined from 31% to 27%. According to the North Carolina State Board of Elections (as reported by Newsweek), as of July 11 the state had roughly 2.32 million registered Democrats, 2.33 million registered Republicans, and 3.11 million voters registered as unaffiliated.
In a state where independents make up the largest share of the electorate, Trump’s declining popularity could have a profound impact on this race and control of the U.S. Senate.
This data comes from a PRRI survey of 655 North Carolina residents that was conducted online between February 28 and December 8, 2025. The margin of error is +/- 5.0 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. Learn more about the PRRI American Values Atlas methodology here.
