New PRRI/The Atlantic poll: Clinton expands lead into double digits as Trump falters among independents, women

A new PRRI/The Atlantic Survey of 886 likely voters—with field dates (October 5-9) spanning the fallout from a tape of Donald Trump making lewd comments about women—shows Hillary Clinton with a double-digit lead over Donald Trump: 49 percent vs. 38 percent. The new findings mark the second week in a row that Clinton has strengthened her lead over Trump. As recently as two weeks ago, Trump and Clinton were tied at 43 percent each among likely voters.

Independent likely voters have dramatically shifted their candidate preferences over the past week, with support for Trump dropping 11 points. Roughly four in ten (44 percent) independent likely voters favor Clinton, compared to one-third (33 percent) who are supporting Trump. Last week, Clinton trailed Trump among independent likely voters by eight points (36 percent vs. 44 percent).

The PRRI/The Atlantic Survey also finds Trump is facing an historic deficit among female likely voters: just 28 percent of women voters back Trump, compared to 61 percent who support Clinton. Trump’s support among female likely voters is down from 33 percent last week. Clinton also faces a deficit among male likely voters: 48 percent of male voters support Trump, while 37 percent support Clinton. Among white male likely voters, Trump leads Clinton by 28 points (57 percent vs. 29 percent).

Finally, the survey finds that roughly two-thirds (65 percent) of white evangelical Protestant likely voters remain committed to supporting Trump, compared to only 16 percent who favor Clinton.

Read the entire analysis here: https://www.prri.org/research/prri-atlantic-october-11-2016-presidential-election-horserace-clinton-trump.

Read the topline questionnaire, including survey methodology: https://www.prri.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/PRRIThe-Atlantic-Survey-Topline-Oct.-9.pdf.

Methodology

The survey was designed and conducted by PRRI in partnership with The Atlantic. The survey was made possible by generous grants from Open Society Foundations and the Ford Foundation. Results of the survey were based on bilingual (Spanish and English) RDD telephone interviews conducted between October 5 and 9, 2016, by professional interviewers under the direction of SSRS. Interviews were conducted among a random sample of 1,327 adults 18 years of age or older living in the United States (801 respondents were interviewed on a cell phone). The margin of error for the entire sample is +/- 3.2 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The survey included a subsample of 886 likely voters. The margin of error for the subsample of likely voters is +/- 3.9 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The design effect for the survey is 1.4. In addition to sampling error, surveys may also be subject to error or bias due to question wording, context and order effects.

PRRI is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, nonpartisan organization specializing in research at the intersection of religion, values, and public life.