Since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision, abortion ballot initiatives have become focal points in several U.S. states, and in 2024 voters again will address reproductive rights directly. Voters have approved expanding protections when it comes to reproductive rights, even in conservative states such as Kansas and Ohio. This election cycle, abortion-related initiatives reflect the desire of citizens to challenge abortion restrictions. In Arizona, Colorado, and Florida, voters will consider amendments to explicitly protect abortion access until viability, while states with current abortion restrictions such as Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, and South Dakota are offering voters a chance to protect abortion rights in their state constitutions. Proposed amendments in Maryland and New York seek broader reproductive rights, including protections against discrimination based on pregnancy. This Spotlight examines voters’ views on abortion in the ten states with abortion-related ballot initiatives, including Arizona and Nevada, two hotly contested presidential battleground states.  

Support for the Legality of Abortion 

The 2023 PRRI American Values Atlas shows that, except for South Dakota and Nebraska, solid majorities of residents in all these states say abortion should be legal in all or in most cases, including three in four Nevadans (76%), New Yorkers (74%), and Marylanders (73%) and roughly six in ten Coloradans (65%), Floridians (62%), Arizonans (60%), Montanans (57%), and Missourians (55%). A slim majority of Nebraskans (51%) say that abortion should be legal in all or in most cases, while South Dakotans are divided: 47% say abortion should be legal in all or in most cases and 52% say it should be illegal in all and in most cases.  

Abortion as a Political “Litmus Test” 

Abortion matters as an important voting issue to many residents in these states. Around four in ten say that they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion: 43% of Montanans, 38% of Missourians and Nebraskans, 37% of Coloradans and South Dakotans, 36% of New Yorkers, Marylanders, and Nevadans. In Arizona (35%) and Florida (33%), about one-third of residents say that they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion.  

However, abortion is a litmus test matters for more women than men. Women are more likely than men in Maryland (43% vs. 29%), Colorado (43% vs. 29%), New York (41% vs. 31%), and Florida (38% vs. 28%) to say they will only vote for a candidate who shares theirs views on abortion. ^[1]

If past trends continue to hold in this election cycle,  we are likely to see voters in these states largely vote to codify access to abortion. And, importantly, abortion has the potential to shape the outcome of other races in these states as well. 

[1] The number of cases for men and women in South Dakota, Montana, Nebraska, and Nevada are too small to report separately.