Catholics represent one of the largest and most diverse religious groups in the United States. According to PRRI’s 2023 Census of Religion in America, over one-fifth of Americans identify as Catholic (22%), including 12% who identify as white Catholic and 8% who identify as Hispanic Catholic. Despite the Catholic Church’s clear stance on a variety of political issues, the opinions of Catholic voters vary widely. This Spotlight analysis takes a closer look at the demographic breakdown and partisan affiliation of Catholics, with an emphasis on the differences between white and Hispanic Catholics, as well as how a candidate’s stance on a variety of issues impacts the Catholic vote.
Partisanship and Ideology Among American Catholics from 2013 to 2023
Over the last six presidential election cycles, the Catholic vote has been largely split between the Democratic and Republican candidates. In 2004, 52% of Catholics voted for Bush over Kerry (47%). Obama won the Catholic vote in both of his elections beating McCain by seven points (54% vs. 45%) in 2008 and Romney by a smaller margin (50% vs. 48%). Although Trump won the Catholic vote over Clinton in 2016 (50% vs. 46%), the split remained relatively even between Biden and Trump in 2020. PRRI’s 2023 American Values Atlas shows that the percentage of Catholics who identify as Democrats (33% in 2023) has remained largely unchanged over the last decade. However, the percentage of Catholics who are independent has decreased from 37% in 2013 to 30% in 2023, while the percentage of Catholic Republicans has increased from 21% to 28%.
A plurality of American Catholics identify as Democrats in 2023, but only 23% identify as ideologically liberal. In comparison, around one-third of Catholics identify as ideologically conservative (35%). While the percentages of Catholics who identify as ideologically liberal or conservative have remained unchanged since 2013, the percentage of moderate Catholics has increased from 30% to 39% in 2023.
Racial Differences in Catholic Partisanship and Ideology
The majority of Catholics are either white (55%) or Hispanic (37%), with fewer than one in ten identifying as AAPI (4%), Black (3%), multiracial (1%), or Native American (1%). While there has been no change in the racial breakdown of American Catholics over the last decade, there have been significant changes in partisanship and political ideology among white and Hispanic Catholics.
White Catholics have consistently been more Republican and conservative than both Hispanic Catholics and American Catholics overall. In the last decade, the percentage of white Catholics who identify as Republican has increased by almost 10 percentage points from 29% in 2013 to 38% in 2023. In comparison, just 15% of Hispanic Catholics identify as Republican. Similarly, the percentage of white Catholics who identify as conservative (43%) has remained unchanged since 2013 while the percentage of Hispanic Catholics who identify as conservative has decreased from 34% to 26% in 2023.
The percentage of white and Hispanic Catholics who identify as independent has decreased from over one-third (36% and 39%, respectively) in 2013 to three in ten (31% and 30%) in 2023. The percentage of white Catholics who identify as moderate (36%) has remained stable, while the number of Hispanic Catholics increased from 29% in 2013 to 42% in 2023.
Hispanic Catholics (43%) are substantially more likely than white Catholics (25%) to identify as Democrats. Additionally, Democratic affiliation among Hispanic Catholics has increased from 38% in 2013 while affiliation among white Catholics has remained relatively the same. Hispanic Catholics (28%) are also more likely than white Catholics (20%) to identify as liberal, but there has been no significant change in either group since 2013.
Assessing Critical Issues for Catholic Voters
PRRI asked Americans whether they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, climate change, immigration, access to guns, and LGBTQ issues. One-third of Catholics would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on access to guns (35%) and immigration (32%).
According to the 2023 PRRI American Values Atlas, the majority of Catholics support nondiscrimination protections and same-sex marriage, including 80% and 75%, respectively, of other Catholics of color, 78% and 68%, respectively, of Hispanic Catholics, and 77% and 73%, respectively, of white Catholics. Similarly, majorities of Catholics oppose religiously based refusals to LGBTQ people (71% of other Catholics of color, 70% of Hispanic Catholics, and 57% of white Catholics). Yet, one-quarter of Catholics (24%) would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on LGBTQ issues. There were no significant differences by race among Catholics.
Majorities of Catholics also say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, including 73% of other Catholics of color, 62% of white Catholics, and 57% of Hispanic Catholics. Indeed, about three in ten Catholics (31%), including 31% of white Catholics and 29% of Hispanic Catholics, say they would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion, compared with four in ten Catholics of color (39%). One-quarter of Catholics (25%) would only vote for a candidate who shares their views on climate change. Hispanic Catholics (27%) and non-Hispanic Catholics of color (33%) are slightly more likely than white Catholics (22%) to say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on climate change.
Presidential Candidate Favorability
The 2024 PRRI American Values Survey captures a picture of who candidates will be voting for in the Presidential election in November. Catholics who are registered to vote are evenly split on their intention to vote for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, with Trump having a slight edge (53% and 46%, respectively). White Catholics are significantly more likely than Hispanic Catholics to say they are voting for Trump (61% vs. 38%), while these numbers are flipped for Harris (61% vs. 38%).
Catholics who attend religious services weekly or more are notably more likely to say they will vote for Trump (62%) than Harris (36%). On the other hand, Catholics who seldom or never attend services are slightly more likely to say they will vote for Harris (54%) than Trump (46%).
Catholic women voters are evenly split between Trump (50%) and Harris (48%). By contrast, Catholic men voters are significantly more likely to vote for Trump (56%) than for Harris (44%). Majorities of white Catholic men (68%) and women (56%) say they will vote for Trump. This pattern is flipped for Hispanic Catholics. Majorities of both men (66%) and women (57%) say they will vote for Harris.[1]
[1] The number of cases for Hispanic Catholic men is 91. Results need to be interpreted with caution.