Home > Press Releases > Survey: One in Four Republican Trump Supporters Say That if Trump Loses the Election, He Should Declare Results Invalid and Do Whatever it Takes to Assume Office
Survey: One in Four Republican Trump Supporters Say That if Trump Loses the Election, He Should Declare Results Invalid and Do Whatever it Takes to Assume Office
10.16.2024

Political divisions deepen, with concerning support for political violence and election denial

WASHINGTON (October 16, 2024)— As the United States stands on the brink of a deeply divisive presidential election, a new national survey released today by Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) in partnership with the Brookings Institution reveals a nation grappling with deep political divisions and emerging challenges to democratic norms. The survey — the 15th annual American Values Survey — also illuminates Americans’ attitudes about the 2024 election, the overall direction of the country, the state of the economy, and the broader health of our democracy.

Majorities of Americans, across party lines, say the health of our democracy is a critical issue in this election. But Republicans remain more likely than Democrats to support authoritarianism and potential political violence.

Nearly one in four Republicans who hold a favorable view of Trump (23%), and 19% of all Republicans, say that if former President Donald Trump loses the election, he should declare the results invalid and do whatever it takes to assume office. Only 12% of Democrats say Vice President Kamala Harris should do the same. 

While most Americans reject political violence, nearly three in ten Republicans (29%) believe that true American patriots may have to resort to violence to save the country, compared with 16% of independents and 8% of Democrats. Republicans are twice as likely (27%) as independents (14%) or Democrats (12%) to agree that armed everyday citizens should be poll watchers, even if this makes some voters uncomfortable. Republicans (22%) are also more likely to agree than independents (14%) or Democrats (12%) that “if the 2024 presidential election is compromised by voter fraud, everyday Americans will need to ensure the rightful leader takes office, even if it requires taking violent actions.”

“Trump’s ongoing attacks of the norms of democracy have had a measurable impact on rank-and-file Republicans,” says Robert P. Jones, President and Founder of PRRI. “Fueled by Donald Trump’s Big Lie that the 2020 election was stolen from him, about one in four Republican Trump supporters say they support Trump taking office by force if he loses the election, and three in ten say they believe political violence might be necessary to save the country.”

Most Republicans continue to believe the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump (62%) and believe those convicted for their roles in the Jan. 6 insurrection are being held hostage by the government (46%). 

Only one in four Americans (25%) agree with former president Donald Trump’s frequent claim that “the people convicted for their role in the violent Jan. 6 attacks on the U.S. Capitol are really patriots who are being held hostage by the government.” Republicans who hold favorable views of Trump are more than four times as likely as Republicans who hold unfavorable views to agree with this assessment of those convicted of crimes on Jan. 6 (52% vs. 12%).

Americans are more likely to believe Trump rather than Harris will use the presidency to become a dictator.

The American public is evenly divided about whether there is a real danger that Trump will use the presidency to become a dictator (49% agree vs. 48% disagree), though stark partisan divides emerge: roughly one in ten Republicans (11%) agree with the statement compared with 88% of  Democrats. Only 28% of Americans (56% of Republicans vs. 4% of Democrats) agree that there is a real danger that Kamala Harris will use the presidency to become a dictator if elected.

While Vice President Kamala Harris enjoys a small lead over former President Donald Trump nationally among registered voters, 15% of registered voters are unsure or intend to vote for another candidate.

Among registered voters surveyed between August 16 and September 4, 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris leads former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points (45% vs. 40%). Nearly one in ten voters (9%) are not sure who they are voting for, while 6% say they will vote for another candidate. In a two-way matchup among registered voters, including those who prefer third-party candidates or those who are undecided, Harris’ lead over Trump decreases slightly (50% v. 47%).

In a two-way race, religious subgroups’ support for candidates looks similar to 2020. White evangelical Protestants remain the strongest backers of Trump (81%), followed by white Catholics (61%) and white mainline/non-evangelical Protestants (60%). By contrast, more than eight in ten (83%) of Black Protestants back Harris, as do 70% of religiously unaffiliated Americans and 61% of Hispanic Catholics.

Inflation remains a critical issue for most Americans; immigration and crime top critical issues among Republicans, while abortion and the health of democracy rank higher for Democrats. 

“While Americans broadly agree that inflation remains a central concern to their vote, Republicans and Democrats diverge sharply on the role of cultural issues this November,” according to PRRI CEO Melissa Deckman. “The salience of abortion for Democrats and immigration for Republicans as litmus test issues, in particular, stand out as key issues for these voters, respectively.”

More than six in ten Americans rate increasing costs of housing and everyday expenses as a critical issue to their vote in November, including 69% of Republicans, 61% of Independents, and 57% of Democrats. On other issues, Republicans rank immigration (71%) and crime (57%), as critical issues. For Democrats, the health of our democracy (61%) and abortion (55%) dominate their most pressing concerns.

American attitudes about immigration policies and views toward immigrants have grown more conservative; nationally, those trends are driven by Republicans and independents adopting more conservative views in recent years.

Most Americans (56%) say that undocumented immigrants living in the United States should be given a pathway to become citizens, provided they meet certain requirements, which is down from 63% in 2013. Since 2013, support for a pathway to citizenship has dropped sharply among Republicans, from 53% to 36% in 2024. Support for building a wall along the U.S. border with America has also grown from 41% in 2016 to 51% today. Republicans (88%) are more than four times as likely as Democrats (21%) to support building such a wall.

While few Americans (35%) agree that “immigrants are invading our country and replacing our cultural and ethnic background,” this view is held by 65% of Republicans. White evangelical Protestants (62%) are the only religious group among whom a majority agree that immigrants are invading our country and replacing our cultural and ethnic background. Similarly, one-third of Americans (34%) say that immigrants entering the country illegally today are “poisoning the blood of our country,” including six in ten Republicans (61%), 30% of independents, and 13% of Democrats.

Most Americans say the economy is headed in the wrong direction and worry about their financial situation and future.

Most Americans say the economy is headed in the wrong direction (69%), including nearly all Republicans (93%) and 42% of Democrats. Seventy-two percent of Americans say they are worried about not having enough money to retire, while more than six in ten say they are worried about being unable to afford health care (65%), housing (64%), or everyday expenses such as groceries or gas (61%), or get a job that pays a living wage (59%). Older Americans, including baby boomers and members of the Silent Generation, are significantly less worried than younger Americans about economic issues.

Other notable findings:

  • Republicans (68%) are more likely than independents (48%) and Democrats (31%) to say that American culture and way of life has mostly changed for the worse since the 1950s. Two-thirds (68%) of Democrats say American culture and way of life has changed for the better. White Christian groups and Hispanic Protestants are the most likely to say that American culture and way of life has changed for the worse since the 1950s.
  • Nearly three-fourths of Americans (73%) favor requiring Supreme Court justices to retire at a certain age or after a certain number of years instead of serving for life, including 88% of Democrats, 72% of independents, and 59% of Republicans.
  • The vast majority of Americans (85%) oppose laws that make it illegal for people to seek out in vitro fertilization, or IVF, to have a child; there are little differences between Democrats (88%), independents (86%), and Republicans (85%) in opposing laws that make IVF illegal. Strong majorities of Americans across faith traditions also oppose such laws.
  • A majority of Americans (57%) support laws that require driver’s licenses or government ID to display a person’s sex at birth rather than their gender identity, while 38% oppose them. More than eight in ten Republicans (83%) support these laws, compared with 59% of independents and 34% of Democrats.

Methodology

The survey was designed and conducted by PRRI. The survey was made possible through the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York, with additional support from the Ford Foundation, the Unitarian Universalist Veatch Program at Shelter Rock, and the Open Society Foundations. The survey was conducted among a representative sample of 5,027 adults (age 18 and up) living in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, who are part of Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel and an additional 325 who were recruited by Ipsos using opt-in survey panels to increase the sample sizes in smaller states. Interviews were conducted online between August 16 and September 4, 2024. The margin of error for the national survey is +/- 1.82 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence, including the design effect for the survey of 1.84. In addition to sampling error, surveys may also be subject to error or bias due to question wording, context, and order effects. Additional details about the KnowledgePanel can be found on the Ipsos website: www.ipsos.com/en-us/solution/knowledgepanel

About PRRI

PRRI is a 501(c)(3) nonprofit, nonpartisan organization dedicated to conducting independent research at the intersection of religion, culture, and politics.

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