6% of Voters in Six States Will Decide the Presidential Election
Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei at Axios report that political strategists predict that the upcoming presidential election will be decided by roughly 6% of voters in six swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. While the vast majority of the 244 million Americans eligible to vote in November will either vote with their party, not vote at all, or live in states virtually certain to be red or blue, a small group of Americans —swing state voters — are considered truly in play to decide this election. PRRI’s latest survey finds that 68% of independents in battleground states say abortion should be legal in all or most cases and 37% of battleground state residents say they will only vote for a candidate who shares their views on abortion.
The Pro-Life Movement in Political Retreat
For Religion News Service, Mark Silkuses PRRI’s new state-level data on Americans’ abortion attitudes to analyze voter’s chances of passing ballot initiatives in Florida and Arizona that would amend the state constitution to establish a right to abortion prior to fetal viability. Noting the diversity of thought on the legality — and morality — of abortion in the U.S., Silk concludes that “the pro-life movement has pushed the political envelope too far.” Additionally, PRRI President and Founder Robert P. Jones, Ph.D.’s latest#WhiteTooLong Substack post points out that most religious groups today favor the legality of abortion and shares five other important takeaways from PRRI’s survey.
Donald Trump Puts America on Notice Again: If He Loses, He Won’t Go Quietly
Doyle McManus at The Los Angeles Times writes that former President Donald Trump appears ready to continue his pattern of contesting election results, judging from recent media appearances and campaign speeches. Even after he won the 2016 election, Trump claimed that the election was rigged to deny him the popular vote, and he has persistently claimed the 2020 election was illegitimate, despite losing by 7 million votes. Trump’s rhetoric may be appealing to key voters; PRRI foundthat 38% of Americans, including 48% of Republicans, believe the country needs “a leader who is willing to break some rules if that’s what it takes to set things right.”
Biden Expands Health Insurance Access for DACA Recipients
At The Washington Post, Amy B. Wang reports that the White House is expanding health insurance access to approximately 100,000 immigrants covered by the DACA program, effective November 1 – a policy change that contrasts sharply with former President Trump’s attempts to reduce protections for DACA beneficiaries. The policy change comes at a time when immigration remains a key issue for both candidates and voters going into the 2024 presidential election. PRRI’s 2023 American Values Surveyfinds that when asked how a candidate’s views on immigration might affect their vote, 32% of Americans stated they would only vote for someone who shared their views.
